Drawing Blanks

Premature Optimization is a Prerequisite for Success

Russian presidential election 2012

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A quick comparison of 2012 presidential election vs. 2011 parliamentary election (see https://bbzippo.wordpress.com/tag/russian-elections/). I’m just trying out some new (to me) graphing techniques.

Precinct size vs. Turnout

2011 (parliamentary) on the left, 2012 (presidential) on the right. We can see the same 3 distinct categories: ethnic outskirts, smaller precincts (suburbs) and larger precincts (cities). Obviously, more people turn out to vote for president than for parliament seats, especially in cities. (The line is the median smoothing).

szie-to-comp

Distribution by turnout in each category

to-comp

Leader support in each category

vote-comp

Entropy, Coleman’s conformity test

Median party entropy vs. turnout line is plotted, as well as fitted turnout entropy. 2011 on the left, 2012 on the right.

H-copm

The median entropy unexpectedly going up at very high turnout is due to two factors. The 100% turnout figure actually means “turnout unknown”. There is no voter registration procedure in Russia; the lists of voters are census-based. At temporary voting locations (e.g. hospitals, airports, train stations) voters are added to the list as they come and vote, thus 100% turnout. The second factor is another special category of precincts: ships, expeditions, etc. Those are not considered temporary, but they show high turnout, low homogeneity and high support for opposition.

And finally, the residuals of the entropy fit. The 2012 fit (on the right) is tighter, but the shapes are the same.

H-res-copm

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Written by bbzippo

03/27/2012 at 3:02 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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